How do investors price accrual risk during crises?

Under rational asset pricing theory, and in efficient, frictionless market, risk should be priced contemporaneously and, thus, the market meltdown during the COVID-19 pandemic must have been a contingent valuation of newly created risk. In contrast, we find that the reduction in equity value during the pandemic was stronger for stocks with higher pre-pandemic accrued risk. This lends support to the discrete pricing proposition, which is a form of behavioural bias where investors price accrued risk during significant corporate or macroeconomic events. Furthermore, we compare the pricing of accrued risk during the pandemic with the pricing of accrued risk during non-pandemic events and during past financial crises. We report evidence that pricing of accrued risk results in a premium in normal times and a discount during financial turmoil. Finally, we report evidence that investors price accrued stocks discriminately, that is, they are more likely to price accrued risk of stocks of larger firms, smaller B/M, and weaker momentum. Several theoretical and practical implications are discussed inside the paper.

Stock reactions of the S&P500 industries to negative and positive COVID-19 news

Purpose: This paper aims to use the Covid-19 pandemic situation to conduct an experiment-like study that focuses on industry reactions under stress. Particularly, this study analyzes stock response to eight pandemic related news in 2020 across different industries. This study also investigates the role that the market risk, beta, plays in such stock reactions. Design/methodology/approach: This study computes the cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) around COVID-19 events using adjusted daily stock returns of all stocks in the S&P 500 index between January 2, 2020 and December 31, 2020. This study also sorts all stocks by beta into quintiles and measures the CAR [0, +3] for each quintile around each event date. Findings: This study finds that low beta portfolios exhibit greater abnormal returns (in absolute value) than high beta portfolios during down markets while high beta portfolios exhibit greater abnormal returns (in absolute values) when the market starts to recover. However, this study finds that beta does not seem to explain the abnormal returns reported in various industries during times of negative sentiment. During times of positive sentiment, both the beta effect and industry effect are present. Originality/value: Extant literature almost unanimously concurs that the COVID-19 pandemic has brought about negative stock reactions to financial markets across the globe. Nevertheless, three interrelated issues have not been explored: market reactions during the subsequent recovery, industry heterogeneity and individual stocks’ risk profile. The study addresses these matters. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Households' intentions under financial vulnerability conditions: is it likely for the COVID-19 pandemic to leave a permanent scar?

Purpose The authors draw on psychological reactance theory, collective mental programming, psychological profiles and financial vulnerability experiences to assess the possibility that the pandemic may induce transformative changes in households' behavioral intentions related to financial decisions after the pandemic is over. Design/methodology/approach Using a unique survey data drawn from four different countries located in North America, Europe, Africa and Latin America, the authors show that the stressful conditions that accompanied the pandemic have instigated a state of financial vulnerability and stimulated instinctual defensive mechanisms among consumers. Findings The study results indicate that households have intentions to make defensive decisions in spending, consumption, planning and investment. Furthermore, the authors report evidence that personal psychological heterogeneity (as an individual factor) and collective mental programming (as a cultural factor) play a significant role in shaping households' postpandemic financial intentions. Research limitations/implications The study findings carry important practical implications. For financial institutions, marketers and financial advisors, the authors' work implies that individual and collective factors affect people's perception and behavioral intentions in response to financial adversities. For social planners and legislators, the authors' work shows that they should expect not only short-term but also long-term reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. Originality/value Most research on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on households' financial behavior focuses on transitional adjustments made during the pandemic, and little emphasis has been placed on potential postpandemic adjustments. The authors contend that it would be a mistake to analyze the pandemic-induced crisis as a temporary financial hardship.